Big 12: And Then There Were 9

Texas A&M has officially pulled the trigger on its exit from the Big 12 and move to the SEC. Technically, A&M is only reporting its intention to "submit an application to join another athletic conference." As shown in the above diagram made from my old Big 12 t-shirt, which I bought upon my arrival to the Texas Tech faculty in 1997, Texas A&M is the third school to leave the conference.

The story is far from over, as each conference presumably needs to get back to an even number of members, 10 or 12 for the Big 12, and 14 or 16 for the SEC.

ESPN.com's David Ubben evaluates possible contenders to join the Big 12. Brigham Young University is the leading school mentioned as a potential new member. BYU had previously announced its plans to leave the Mountain West Conference to go independent in football and join the West Coast Conference in other sports. Conceivably, BYU could align with the Big 12 for football only. Some schools from the old Southwest Conference (e.g., Houston, Southern Methodist) that got left behind when Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Baylor merged with the old Big 8 to form the Big 12, would probably be interested in joining this time around.

Of course, the Big 12 could in reality be a house of cards, with Texas perhaps entertaining ideas of becoming an independent in football. The school already has its own Longhorn Network with ESPN. Also, Missouri and/or Oklahoma (with Oklahoma State) could follow Texas A&M to the SEC. Should the Big 12 implode, schools such as Texas Tech and the Oklahoma schools (if they aren't in the SEC) could seek membership in an expanded Pac 12.

Other schools rumored to be targets of the SEC include Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Louisville.

A&M "Intends" to Move to SEC

This ESPN.com article states that Texas A&M "intends" to leave for the SEC. Conferences generally like to have an even number of teams, to be able to provide full dockets of league play each weekend without one of the teams having a bye or playing a nonconference opponent (although the Big 10 went many years with 11 schools after adding Penn State).

Accordingly, rumors are abuzz regarding who else might shift to the SEC, should the A&M move come to fruition. Clemson (in South Carolina) and Florida State, each from the ACC, have been mentioned. The above-linked ESPN.com article gives more prominence than I've seen elsewhere to the possibility of A&M's Big 12 mate Missouri jumping to the SEC. As if the Aggies' (potential) departure wouldn't be devastating enough to the Big 12, a Missouri exit would have the damaging effect of ending the intense Missouri-Kansas basketball rivalry (at least within the context of the same league).

Being at Texas Tech, I've tended to look at the latest round of proposed changes through a Big 12 lens. From a different perspective, a blogger known as "Mr. SEC" reviews what he considers five myths of that conference expanding.

A&M to SEC Momentum Builds

To paraphrase Yogi Berra, Texas A&M to the Southeastern Conference (SEC) is not official until it's official. Still, as seen in this screenshot from a site that covers A&M sports, the momentum certainly is building.

Birmingham News columnist Jon Solomon writes that the move "feels inevitable." Here are what I feel are key excerpts from Solomon's piece:

Texas A&M would be very attractive to the SEC on several fronts. Culturally, the school fits. The SEC would get into the Dallas and Houston television markets, giving the conference a lot of leverage to renegotiate with its media deal with ESPN. Just as importantly, add a school in Texas and the SEC would have a foothold to recruit in the massive football-crazy state.

Texas A&M has clearly grown weary of Texas and the Longhorn Network, which hasn't even premiered yet. Texas rules the Big 12. That's why the conference won't survive long-term. There's too much in-fighting for this to last.

The A&M story is appearing increasingly in national sports outlets. And if Lubbock, Texas, the home of Texas Tech University and the place where I live, is representative of other Big 12 towns, Aggie talk is ubiquitous in select local markets. Today's two-hour radio show Tech Talk was devoted entirely to the possible A&M move and its implications for Texas Tech and more of the same is planned for the coming days. I heard someone use the term "secede" for what A&M would be doing, which may have been a play on words (as in SEC-ede).

It is being reported that Texas A&M's Board of Regents will meet on August 22 to deliberate on the matter.

An Aggie exit would leave the Big 12 with nine teams (given the previous departures of Nebraska to the Big 10 and Colorado to the Pac 10, now Pac 12). My own guess, for whatever it's worth, is that if A&M were to leave the Big 12, the University of Texas would become an independent in football (a la BYU) and the Big 12 would be history. The Longhorns would presumably need to "hook" up with some other league for sports other than football.

Texas A&M: The Trigger to More Realignment?

Via Double-T Nation, I came across an article from TexAgs.com entitled "Will A&M Trigger the Next Realignment Explosion?" The article suggests that Texas A&M continues to keep open the option of leaving the Big 12 for the SEC (which would almost certainly be part of an even larger SEC expansion). The reason? Indications that the Aggies' archrival, the University of Texas, is "essentially see[ing] if going at it alone will be a viable future option," according to the article. In other words, some inside (and presumably also outside) of Aggieland think that UT, armed with its new Longhorn Network television venture, may try to become an Independent in athletics. BYU, of course, has already set an example of bolting from a conference (the Mountain West) to go Independent, at least partially.

Pitino Chimes in on Organizing the Big East

Louisville men's basketball coach Rick Pitino has some ideas on splitting the Big East conference into divisions, as the league prepares to take on its 17th team (and perhaps more).

State of the WAC

Conference realignment talk has obviously died down quite a bit compared to last year. However, for those keeping track of every move, Seattle University will be joining the Western Athletic Conference. This article on the move also delves into the long-term challenges of the WAC, namely attracting additional football-playing schools (Seattle is not one) and managing the huge geographic spread of member schools (encompassing states from Washington to Louisiana).

TCU to Big East is Still Puzzling

I have been trying to understand the move of Texas Christian University (TCU) joining the Big East conference, which became official within the past week. It's a real head-scratcher, to me at least, and at best, it seems to be a very short-term-oriented move, as suggested by the New York Times' Nate Silver. The plan looks most questionable in terms of geography, as I've illustrated in the following map (which you can click on to enlarge).

The Big East, per its name, is heavily concentrated in the northeastern quadrant of the U.S., especially if one looks exclusively at the conference's football-playing members. TCU is several states away from any other Big East school (although other schools, depicted in pink, have been rumored as additional candidates for the Big East; more on that later). It is true, though, that because TCU is close to a major airport (Dallas-Fort Worth) and Big East schools are overwhelmingly in big cities (e.g., Chicago, Cincinnati, New York, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Washington, DC), travel should be convenient.

Prior to adding TCU, the Big East had 16 schools total, eight of which competed in Big East football (Notre Dame is an Independent in football and Villanova plays football, just not currently at the top, Football Bowl Subdivision, level, formerly known as Division I-A). Many observers have long thought that the Big East would someday split into two conferences, one with football, and the other -- going back to the conference's roots -- as, to quote Silver, "a basketball-focused conference... consisting of teams in urban climes in New York, New Jersey, Washington D.C., and New England."

There hasn't been so much talk of a Big East break-up in recent years, but if a football/basketball fission were to materialize, TCU -- for now -- would strengthen the football side. As Silver notes, the Horned Frogs have "won 10 or more football games 8 times in the last 11 seasons." However, TCU has not been a member of the dominant conference in its region, the Big 12, so the Frogs may not be quite as good as their recent record suggests.

In Coach Gary Patterson's tenure at TCU, which began in 2000, the Horned Frogs have held their own pretty well against Big 12 teams, but are only 5-5 against them (vs. Baylor, 2-0; vs. Iowa State, 1-0; vs. Nebraska, 0-1; Oklahoma, 1-1; vs. Texas, 0-1; vs. Texas A&M, 0-1; vs. Texas Tech, 1-1; these figures are available on page 17 of the Frogs' 2010 media guide).

Further, after reaching into the statistical back of tricks that made him famous as a baseball and political analyst, Silver goes on to project a decline in the Horned Frogs' winning percentage in upcoming seasons. Thus, TCU could well end up down the line as a middle-of-the-pack Big East team, in geographic isolation. Meanwhile, if TCU's current football hot streak wears off, prospective Horned Frog recruits might not find it so attractive to be playing games against Syracuse, Cincinnati, West Virginia, and Connecticut, rather than Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech.

What TCU indisputably gains in the short-term is an enhanced chance to play in one of the elite BCS (Bowl Championship Series) bowl games (Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange Bowls, plus the BCS national championship game). TCU's recent home, the Mountain West Conference, is not an Automatic Qualifier (AQ) conference, meaning that its champion does not automatically get a bid to a BCS bowl. Only when a Mountain West team achieves a high national ranking can it play in a BCS bowl (as TCU has done this season, making the Rose Bowl on the strength of an undefeated season and No. 3 national ranking). The Big East, in contrast, is an AQ conference. This article quotes TCU Athletic Director Chris Del Conte thusly:

"Having BCS automatic-qualifying status was a priority for our football program and a great reward for the success we've had the last decade."

For at least three reasons -- the Big East having nine football schools when 12 seems to be the ideal because it permits a conference championship game; 17 being a strange number of teams to have in a conference for basketball (and other non-football sports); and the geographic isolation of TCU and South Florida from the rest of the schools -- expansion talk has not stopped with TCU.

Existing Big East non-football member Villanova apparently has an offer to become a football member, if it's willing to upgrade its football program to the FBS (i.e., Division I-A) level from the level just below. This "Nova Blog" column argues passionately for the school to take the leap up, but acknowledges faculty opposition amidst concern over the financial costs of upgrading football. The column also claims that fellow Philadelphia school Temple, which is enjoying a football resurgence, could be tapped by the Big East if Villanova demurs.

Other teams rumored as Big East candidates include the University of Central Florida (which would give South Florida a natural rival), the University of Houston (which would do the same for TCU), and the University of Kansas. That KU would have any interest in the Big East seems to stem from how the Jayhawks almost got left out in the cold during this past summer's near implosion of the Big 12. This column explores the Kansas-to-the-Big East scenario.