Welcome to my latest blog, devoted to following -- and analyzing -- the latest news on conference realignment. As shown in the above graphic, most of the discussion at this time centers on the expansionist plans of the Pacific 10 and Big 10 (which actually has 11 schools), with the Big 12 at the risk of implosion. I have ties to all three of these conferences, being a professor at Texas Tech (Big 12), a Ph.D. recipient from the University of Michigan (Big 10), and an undergraduate alumnus of UCLA (Pac 10). I don't claim to be the nation's greatest expert on conference realignment, but I feel I have a decent hand on the pulse of regions likely to be affected.
Though the graphic may look somewhat complicated, all you really have to focus on is green (for the Pac 10), red (for the Big 12), and blue (for the Big 10). Thus, the "TT" letters for Texas Tech are in red to denote the school's current conference, but it's accompanied by a green arrow pointing west, symbolizing the Red Raiders' apparent invitation (along with five other Big 12 schools) to join the Pac 10. Nebraska and Missouri, with blue arrows pointing east, reportedly are being invited to join the Big 10. You can click on the graphic to enlarge it.
Other scenarios have implicated the Southeastern Conference (SEC), Big East (focusing on its northeastern base of schools such as UConn, Syracuse, and Rutgers), and the Mountain West. Given that these scenarios appear to be on the back-burner presently, I have depicted only the general regions for these conferences, not the individual schools. The Mountain West, in fact, apparently has decided to stay clear of the expansion talk for now and wait to see how things shake out with the other conferences.
One of the great oddities (to me at least) of all the apparent scheming is that the University of Kansas (KU), which has one of history's greatest men's college-basketball programs but only a sporadically good football program, may be left without a major conference. Right now, KU's administration appears to be begging Nebraska to stay in the Big 12, to stabilize the conference somewhat.
At the heart of all the expansion/realignment talk is -- what else? -- money. The Big 10 already has its own comprehensive television network, available on cable/satellite systems in the Midwest and elsewhere, and is reportedly eager to expand into some of the Northeast's major metropolitan areas. Notre Dame, geographically proximate to Big 10 schools and already an established football rival of Michigan, MSU, and Purdue, would be a big coup for the Big 10. The South Bend, Ind. school would have to give up its traditional independent status for football, and discontinue or perhaps modify its exclusive NBC contract. (Notre Dame currently competes in the Big East in sports other than football.)
No discussion of money would be complete, of course, without the University of Texas, Austin. Between the school's $7.2 billion endowment, large fan base (including an estimated 450,000 living alumni), and huge athletic revenues, the Longhorns would potentially be an attractive catch for the Pac 10, Big 10, or SEC (having UT in the Big 10, which is based in the upper Midwest, would really seem odd, though). According to this article, "...last week the Big 12 announced that its members divided about $139 million in revenue in 2009-10. The Longhorns, meanwhile, brought in $138.5 million on their own in 2008-09."
Besides money, media, and geography, the realignment/expansion talk also brings in political, academic, and logistical (e.g., how often would Texas Tech travel from Lubbock to Pullman, Wash. to play WSU in men's golf and women's volleyball) factors. These are the kinds of issues you can look forward to seeing addressed in the coming weeks and months. I invite everyone to use the Comments feature on this blog or e-mail me via my faculty webpage (linked in the upper-right corner) to share your opinions.
To kick things off, here's a link to a recent piece by SI.com's Stewart Mandel on 16 possible scenarios for conference realignment.
Dr. Reifman, How exciting to see this blog! If you can teach me how to create structural equation models, you can help me understand all this realignment talk. I feel as though it should a reality tv show!
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Maria Walker
AR- The two major issues for conference viability appear to number of alumni each school has and whether the school adds to the conference TV footprint, especially if it brings in a big metro area.
ReplyDeleteA major issue is that the Big10 wants to go east for the tv markets. So Rutgers and Syracuse seem like good fits. The challenge seems to be that candidate schools have to be fits for football -- that means being a big school with big10 facilities and have a population base worth adding for TV. Thus, schools already inside the big10 footprint, such as Pitt, would seem like less likely invitees. With these criteria, Maryland is also an option (orangebloods is now saying they are on the big10 list). That would seem to be a surprise. However, MD fits the big10 profile better than most and has both a potential natural rivalry with Penn State (which really needs a conference rival; preferably one that it can beat in football) and brings in a big tv market, (d.c./balt). In fact, the big10, with a lot of between-school big state school homogeniety (save northeastern), is a better fit for maryland in many ways than the big school/small school mix which is the ACC. Of course, it would be a sad day for maryland basketball -- as big10 basketball is generally a suck-fest (ok, maybe I am overly bitter about PSU basketball).
One has to wonder if the future sequelae will ultimately destroy the ACC (which has increased its footprint over the last few years, but hasn't dumped its boutique private schools). Afterall, if the primary factor underlying conference viability is the scope of the TV market, what does UNC gain from being in the same conference with schools like Wake?
relatively unrelated point: overtime - two schools that may emerge are the two growing FL schools, USF and central Florida. These schools are huge and are currently sitting smalltime conferences. Of course, they also have relatively small alumni bases.
hhc
So this is what you do when you aren't teaching Research Methods! You should really show this stuff to some athletic directors because it seems like they have all lost their minds.
ReplyDelete