Five-Thirty-Eight on Evolution of Conference Realignments

Five-Thirty-Eight, the website famous for quantitative analyses of sports, politics, and culture, examines the evolution of conference realignments (link). What I found most interesting are geographical "footprint" maps for five conferences -- the Big Ten (B1G), Big 12, SEC, ACC, and Pac 12 -- in the years 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2025. Each of these conferences' land mass has greatly expanded from 2000 to 2025. The article also describes how, for each conference, each school's travel distance to the geographic center of each conference has grown:

In 2010, the average distance for an FBS team to its conference center was 336 miles. By 2021, that average rose to 365 miles. Within four years of that, the average will be 412 miles.

Once UCLA and USC (both located in Los Angeles) begin play in the B1G, their distance to the conference center will be 1,621 miles!

UCLA and USC to Big Ten

This came out of nowhere! As I started listening to a Lubbock-based sports radio show this afternoon at 3:00 pm Central, I was shocked to hear that longtime Pacific 12 schools UCLA and USC would be joining the Big Ten (B1G), effective 2024. As someone who attended both UCLA (undergrad) and Michigan (graduate school), I'm very excited about the move. Let's go to the map...

As you can see, the two Los Angeles-based schools are geographically distant from the rest of the B1G schools. It is approximately 1,500 miles from LA to Lincoln, Nebraska (previously the westernmost B1G institution). Aside from distance, however, UCLA and USC are a good fit for the B1G, athletically, academically, and culturally.

Athletically, UCLA and USC have a long history of competing against B1G schools in major events. From New Year's Day 1947 to 2001, the Rose Bowl football game always matched the winners of the Pac 12 and B1G (or their predecessor conferences). The Pac 12-B1G Rose Bowl rivalry was sometimes disrupted post-2001 to accommodate the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) and College Football Playoff systems, but Pac 12 and B1G teams still met in the Rose Bowl as often as possible in more recent years. Hence, fans of USC and (to a lesser extent) UCLA have lots of memories of their teams taking on Ohio State, Michigan, and other B1G schools in the Rose Bowl. 

The Bruins and Trojans have faced off with B1G schools in NCAA-tournament competition in other sports, as well, such as men's and women's basketball, men's and women's tennis, women's volleyball, baseball, and softball (UCLA only, as USC does not participate in this sport).

Academically, UCLA and USC are members of the elite 65-school Association of American Universities, as are 13 of the prior 14 B1G members (all except Nebraska). If academics were the major driving factor of conference realignment -- rather than football success and television viewership -- then Stanford and UC Berkeley would almost certainly be joining UCLA and USC in switching from the Pac 12 to the B1G (although, Stanford and Cal's television market of San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose is No. 6 in the US).

Culturally, with enrollments in the high 40,000s, UCLA and USC resemble many B1G schools. Also, like UCLA and USC, some B1G schools are in or near large cities (Northwestern, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers). Finally, even though current and future B1G students do well academically, they also enjoy their time outside the classroom and library. In a 2021 Newsweek magazine compilation of top party schools, in fact, Ohio State ranked No. 23, Michigan State No. 19, Indiana No. 14, Iowa No. 13, Penn State No. 11, USC No. 9, Illinois No. 8, and Wisconsin No. 3. 

Spillover effects of the UCLA and USC departures on the Pac 12 are certain, along with effects on other conferences as the dominos topple. In future entries, I will examine where the Pac 12 might go from here.

ESPN.com Introduces Realignment Tracker Focused on College Hoops

ESPN.com now has a page devoted entirely to documenting universities' conference shifts, with a focus on college basketball (LINK). Basketball has far more Division I conferences (32) than does football (10), so this new tracking site will be a lot more informative than ones dedicated to football.