Big 12: And Then There Were 9

Texas A&M has officially pulled the trigger on its exit from the Big 12 and move to the SEC. Technically, A&M is only reporting its intention to "submit an application to join another athletic conference." As shown in the above diagram made from my old Big 12 t-shirt, which I bought upon my arrival to the Texas Tech faculty in 1997, Texas A&M is the third school to leave the conference.

The story is far from over, as each conference presumably needs to get back to an even number of members, 10 or 12 for the Big 12, and 14 or 16 for the SEC.

ESPN.com's David Ubben evaluates possible contenders to join the Big 12. Brigham Young University is the leading school mentioned as a potential new member. BYU had previously announced its plans to leave the Mountain West Conference to go independent in football and join the West Coast Conference in other sports. Conceivably, BYU could align with the Big 12 for football only. Some schools from the old Southwest Conference (e.g., Houston, Southern Methodist) that got left behind when Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Baylor merged with the old Big 8 to form the Big 12, would probably be interested in joining this time around.

Of course, the Big 12 could in reality be a house of cards, with Texas perhaps entertaining ideas of becoming an independent in football. The school already has its own Longhorn Network with ESPN. Also, Missouri and/or Oklahoma (with Oklahoma State) could follow Texas A&M to the SEC. Should the Big 12 implode, schools such as Texas Tech and the Oklahoma schools (if they aren't in the SEC) could seek membership in an expanded Pac 12.

Other schools rumored to be targets of the SEC include Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Louisville.

A&M "Intends" to Move to SEC

This ESPN.com article states that Texas A&M "intends" to leave for the SEC. Conferences generally like to have an even number of teams, to be able to provide full dockets of league play each weekend without one of the teams having a bye or playing a nonconference opponent (although the Big 10 went many years with 11 schools after adding Penn State).

Accordingly, rumors are abuzz regarding who else might shift to the SEC, should the A&M move come to fruition. Clemson (in South Carolina) and Florida State, each from the ACC, have been mentioned. The above-linked ESPN.com article gives more prominence than I've seen elsewhere to the possibility of A&M's Big 12 mate Missouri jumping to the SEC. As if the Aggies' (potential) departure wouldn't be devastating enough to the Big 12, a Missouri exit would have the damaging effect of ending the intense Missouri-Kansas basketball rivalry (at least within the context of the same league).

Being at Texas Tech, I've tended to look at the latest round of proposed changes through a Big 12 lens. From a different perspective, a blogger known as "Mr. SEC" reviews what he considers five myths of that conference expanding.

A&M to SEC Momentum Builds

To paraphrase Yogi Berra, Texas A&M to the Southeastern Conference (SEC) is not official until it's official. Still, as seen in this screenshot from a site that covers A&M sports, the momentum certainly is building.

Birmingham News columnist Jon Solomon writes that the move "feels inevitable." Here are what I feel are key excerpts from Solomon's piece:

Texas A&M would be very attractive to the SEC on several fronts. Culturally, the school fits. The SEC would get into the Dallas and Houston television markets, giving the conference a lot of leverage to renegotiate with its media deal with ESPN. Just as importantly, add a school in Texas and the SEC would have a foothold to recruit in the massive football-crazy state.

Texas A&M has clearly grown weary of Texas and the Longhorn Network, which hasn't even premiered yet. Texas rules the Big 12. That's why the conference won't survive long-term. There's too much in-fighting for this to last.

The A&M story is appearing increasingly in national sports outlets. And if Lubbock, Texas, the home of Texas Tech University and the place where I live, is representative of other Big 12 towns, Aggie talk is ubiquitous in select local markets. Today's two-hour radio show Tech Talk was devoted entirely to the possible A&M move and its implications for Texas Tech and more of the same is planned for the coming days. I heard someone use the term "secede" for what A&M would be doing, which may have been a play on words (as in SEC-ede).

It is being reported that Texas A&M's Board of Regents will meet on August 22 to deliberate on the matter.

An Aggie exit would leave the Big 12 with nine teams (given the previous departures of Nebraska to the Big 10 and Colorado to the Pac 10, now Pac 12). My own guess, for whatever it's worth, is that if A&M were to leave the Big 12, the University of Texas would become an independent in football (a la BYU) and the Big 12 would be history. The Longhorns would presumably need to "hook" up with some other league for sports other than football.